MA Newsletter

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From Intuition to Evidence: Building Your First Experiment Framework

Hi there,

Most founders start with an intuition—a hunch about what their customers want or how their market works. But the most successful ones quickly transform those hunches into testable hypotheses.

Today, I'm sharing how to build your first experiment framework, inspired by what's working for the fastest-growing startups in our community.

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Why Intuition Isn't Enough

A founder in our last cohort once told me: "I was certain customers wanted feature X. We spent three months building it perfectly. When we launched... crickets."

Sound familiar? The problem isn't bad intuition—it's treating intuition as fact rather than a starting point for investigation.

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Your First Experiment Framework: The 4-Step Process

Based on our work with companies, here's a simplified framework you can implement this week:

1. Formulate Clear Hypotheses

A good hypothesis follows this structure:

• "We believe [specific action/change]..."
• "Will result in [specific outcome]..."
• "Which we can measure by [specific metric]..."

Example: "We believe that adding social proof to our checkout page will increase conversion rate by at least 15%, which we can measure by comparing the before/after conversion percentage."
​Pro tip: Keep a hypothesis log. Document every assumption, no matter how obvious it seems.

2. Design Minimum Viable Tests

The goal isn't perfect data—it's sufficient data to make a better decision than pure intuition.
For each hypothesis, ask:

• What's the simplest way to test this?
• How can we get results in days, not weeks?
• What's the minimum sample size needed?

Example: Instead of rebuilding your entire checkout flow, create two variants with a tool like Unbounce and split traffic 50/50 for just 100 conversions.

3. Set Clear Success Criteria

Before running any test, document:

• What outcome would validate this hypothesis?
• What outcome would invalidate it?
• What's the threshold for "inconclusive"?

Example: Success = 15%+ improvement with 90% statistical significance. Failure = Less than 5% improvement. Inconclusive = Anything between.

4. Build a Prioritization System

Not all tests are created equal. Use this simple formula:

• Potential Impact (1-10) × Confidence (10-100%) ÷ Effort (days)

Example: A high-impact landing page test (8) with moderate confidence (50%) requiring 2 days of work would score: 8 × 0.5 ÷ 2 = 2.0
Run your highest-scoring tests first.

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Putting It Into Practice: Your 1-Week Challenge

This week, I challenge you to:

1. List your top 5 business assumptions
2. Convert them into properly structured hypotheses
3. Design a minimum viable test for your highest-priority hypothesis
4. Document your success criteria
5. Run the test, regardless of how imperfect it seems

Reply to this email with your hypothesis, and I'll personally give you feedback on your test design.

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What Tools Do You Need?

The good news? You can start with almost nothing:

• Google Forms for surveys
• Unbounce/Carrd for landing page tests
• Airtable for tracking experiments
• Loom for quick user testing videos

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Learning From Your Community

Last week, a founder in our community converted a major assumption about parent purchasing triggers into a hypothesis, tested it with a simple email campaign, and discovered his messaging had been focusing on the wrong benefits entirely.

This discovery boosted his conversion rate by 36%.

What assumptions are you ready to test?

Next week, we'll cover "The Minimum Viable Test: How to Validate Ideas in 5 Days or Less" with step-by-step templates you can use immediately.

Until then,

Alessandro Marianantoni
founder/director at M Accelerator (by MEDIARS)

P.S. If you want help designing your first experiment, join our Founders Studio session next Tuesday at 9 am PT where we'll workshop your hypotheses live.

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Founders Resources [members only]

Navigating Startup Valuations: What Carta's Q4 2024 Data Reveals Valuation discussions remain one of the most confusing aspects of fundraising, especially for first-time founders. Just yesterday, I was looking at Carta's latest fundraising benchmarks from Q4 2024 (based on 1,466 US venture rounds), and the data tells an interesting story: The Reality Check Pre-seed median: $11M post-money on $1M raised (1... Read Article

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Scaling to $100M ARR: The Ultimate Cloud Company Benchmarking Guide Just discovered this incredible benchmarking report from Bessemer Venture Partners called "Scaling to $100 Million." If you're building, investing in, or working at a SaaS/cloud company, this is absolutely essential reading. The report, authored by Mary D'Onofrio and Ethan Ding, provides a comprehensive analysis of how category-defining cloud c... Read Article

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The Hypothesis-Experiment-Prioritization Engine: Lessons from Unify and Testing Business Ideas Growth isn't about gut feelings anymore. Modern teams are applying scientific methods to marketing and sales, and the results speak for themselves. Take Unify, whose growth team generated ~$120M in annualized pipeline using a systematic approach. Their framework combines three critical elements: 1. Hypothesis Formation Every experiment begins ... Read Article

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J.P. Morgan's Founder-Focused Playbook Excited to announce a new partner at M Accelerator JP Morgon! Beyond basic banking, they offer: Dedicated startup bankers who actually understand your business model Venture debt options that can extend runway without dilution Treasury management tools that grow with your company Global banking solutions for international expansion What I've f... Read Article

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Founders Studio [members only]

Join our weekly coaching sessions with your materials and get tailored advice on your stage and business challenges.

Tuesday, March 4 at 9:00 AM PST Founders Studio session RSVP

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Here’s what we’ve been writing about

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Steve Blank's Four Steps to the Epiphany is essential for startups. This article dives into Blank's Customer Development methodology, providing a roadmap for building a successful, customer-centric business and avoiding failure.
​Read full article​

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Three Trends in International Football: Which Will Shape the Game’s Future?

Explore the evolving world of international football. This article examines three key trends, including data analytics, tactical flexibility, and youth development, that are poised to shape the future of the game.
​Read full article​

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The Power of a Growth Mindset: Unlocking Success as a Startup Investor

For startup investors, a growth mindset is crucial. This article explores how embracing challenges, learning from failures, and persistent effort- key elements in the growth mindset- can unlock investment success.
​Read full article​

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Empowering Your Success: How We Help

Thank you again for signing up for this newsletter and the Founder Membership. I look forward to embarking on this exciting journey with you! ​ Alessandro Marianantoni Founder/Director at M Accelerator ​Check some of my recent LinkedIn posts on Startups, Investors, etc​

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